Most economists believe recession is over
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Print More than 80 percent of economists believe the recession is over and an expansion has begun, but they forecast economic growth to be slow for the rest of this year and for the next. Although they see a recovery for the real estate sector, they are not as optimistic for unemployment.
That forecast comes from macroeconomic forecasters in a survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) released Monday.
NABE titled its October release of economic outlook “The Great Recession is over."
And in its statement releasing the findings of the survey, NABE President-elect Lynn Reaser said, “The survey found that the vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines."
Economic growth in 2010
Reaser, who is also the chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University said the organization's forecasters expect economic growth to be above the usual trend for the U.S. economy and rise at 2.9 percent in the second half of 2009. They expect a 3 percent gain in 2010.
This upturn follows a sharp 6.4 percent (annual rate) contraction in the first quarter of this year and another 0.7 percent drop in the second quarter. GDP fell four straight quarters for the first time on records dating back to 1947.
Forecasting some good news for the real estate sector, NABE survey indicates that the more than three year downturn in the housing market is very close to coming to an end, with substantial growth expected for next year. According to RealtyTrac 1 in every 357 housing units in the nation has a foreclosure filing in August 2009, that is up from 1 in every 302 units a year earlier.
The large increases in federal debt remains a concern for these economic forecasters.
They also believe that the unemployment rate is likely to remain very high and rise to 10 percent in the first quarter of next year, before edging down to 9.5 percent by the end of 2010. The unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent in September, the highest it has been in 26 years, accoring to the Labor Department.
Inflation is expected to remain contained throughout 2010.
